More Doubts on the housing recovery

I think this spring was very artificial like bump in 2009 due to the tax credit.

Analysis: In the U.S. housing market, recovery or Lost Decade?

By Michelle Conlin and Leah Schnurr Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:04am EDT

What some of Wall Street’s forecasts for a recovery may be underestimating are tectonic shifts in the U.S. economy that make the housing market a different place from a decade ago.

Record levels of student debt, 15 years of flat incomes and the fact that nearly half of homeowners are effectively stranded in their houses look likely to weigh on prices into the indefinite future.

Several housing experts have said the market is in danger of drifting for years. In a bleaker scenario, the fragile U.S. economic recovery could slip back into recession if Europe’s crisis deepens or the political impasse in Washington triggers a new budget crisis, putting the housing market at risk again.

“We’ve gone through half of a lost decade since the crisis started in 2007,” said Robert Shiller, co-founder of the Case-Shiller U.S. housing price index and an economics professor at Yale University.

The so-called Lost Decade in Japan occurred after the speculative bubble in the 1980s, when abnormally low interest rates fueled soaring property values. The ensuing crash has continued to afflict the Japanese economy ever since.

“It seems to me that a plausible forecast is, given our inability to do stimulus now, for Japan-like slow growth for the next five years in the economy. Therefore, if there is an increase in home prices, it’s modest,” said Shiller.

A Reuters poll published on Friday showed most economists think the U.S. housing market has now bottomed and prices should rise nearly 2 percent in 2013 after a flat 2012.

Orange Overview

Proprietary OC Housing News home purchase analysis

3089 North WOODS St Orange, CA 92865

$550,000 …….. Asking Price
$339,000 ………. Purchase Price
7/19/1989 ………. Purchase Date

$211,000 ………. Gross Gain (Loss)
($27,120) ………… Commissions and Costs at 8%
============================================
$183,880 ………. Net Gain (Loss)
============================================
62.2% ………. Gross Percent Change
54.2% ………. Net Percent Change
2.1% ………… Annual Appreciation

Cost of Home Ownership
——————————————————————————
$550,000 …….. Asking Price
$110,000 ………… 20% Down Conventional
3.80% …………. Mortgage Interest Rate
30 ……………… Number of Years
$440,000 …….. Mortgage
$103,137 ………. Income Requirement

$2,050 ………… Monthly Mortgage Payment
$477 ………… Property Tax at 1.04%
………… Mello Roos & Special Taxes
$138 ………… Homeowners Insurance at 0.3%
$0 ………… Private Mortgage Insurance
………… Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$2,664 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

($327) ………. Tax Savings
($657) ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$141 ………….. Lost Income to Down Payment
$158 ………….. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$1,978 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$7,000 ………… Furnishing and Move In at 1% + $1,500
$7,000 ………… Closing Costs at 1% + $1,500
$4,400 ………… Interest Points
$110,000 ………… Down Payment
============================================
$128,400 ………. Total Cash Costs
$30,300 ………. Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$158,700 ………. Total Savings Needed
——————————————————————————————————————————————-
This property is available for sale via the MLS.
Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707
949.769.1599……
sales@ochousingnews.com…..

We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # P827706 from our database. Please check back soon.

	$489,900 420 East RIVERDALE Ave		0.23 miles 5 bd / 2.5 ba 2,347 Sq. Ft.
	$586,000 723 East MEADOWBROOK Ave		0.27 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,400 Sq. Ft.
	$599,000 1802 East SUNVIEW Dr		0.77 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,808 Sq. Ft.
	$425,000 2704 North RIVER TRAIL Rd		0.95 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 1,987 Sq. Ft.
	$469,900 715 East CUMBERLAND Rd		1.07 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,062 Sq. Ft.
	$699,000 2846 North NOHL CANYON Rd		1.18 miles 4 bd / 3 ba 2,400 Sq. Ft.
	$749,000 2306 East VISTA CANYON Rd		1.23 miles 4 bd / 2.5 ba 2,400 Sq. Ft.
	$525,000 2057 North SILVERWOOD St		1.31 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,886 Sq. Ft.
	$559,900 2356 North N. AMOS		1.41 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 2,077 Sq. Ft.
	$489,900 2789 East DIANA Ave		1.48 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 2,017 Sq. Ft.

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