The good economist realize the housing bust in not over, but we are in the middle.
DAVID ROSENBERG: The Housing Bust Isn’t Over, We’ve Got 2 Or 3 More Years Of Pain
Matthew Boesler| Jun. 26, 2012, 9:27 AM
Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg was on BloombergTV this morning talking about the U.S. housing market
Rosenberg said that although home prices do appear to be carving out a bottom, there are major issues that will put downward pressure on prices for a while yet.
On shadow inventories and foreclosures, Rosenberg told Bloomberg:
I estimate that there is between two and three million excess housing units on the market for sale when you count in all the shadow inventory, so you’re talking about at least another two or three years to clear the inventory and put a definitive floor under home prices.
There is no question that the decline in home prices is decelerating. Some people are claiming victory, that we’ve actually put a floor under home prices permanently. I’m not so sure about that.
I think we are going to get more foreclosed homes now and it’s going to add to the inventory situation. My sense is that when you take a look at where the value of these homes are being priced in the marketplace, it’s going to put overall downward pressure on housing prices over the course of the next several quarters.
Placentia Overview
| Median home price is $403,000. Based on a rental parity value of $478,000, this market is under valued. |
| Monthly payment affordability has been worsening over the last 3 month(s). Momentum suggests worsening affordability. |
| Resale prices on a $/SF basis declined from $220/SF to $218/SF. |
| Resale prices have been falling for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests falling prices over the next three months. |
| Median rental rates declined $91 last month from $2,074 to $1,982. |
| Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum suggests rising rents over the next three months. |
| Market rating = 8 |
Proprietary OC Housing News home purchase analysis 
1177 CURIE Ln Placentia, CA 92870
$379,900 …….. Asking Price
$294,000 ………. Purchase Price
5/4/2012 ………. Purchase Date
$85,900 ………. Gross Gain (Loss)
($23,520) ………… Commissions and Costs at 8%
============================================
$62,380 ………. Net Gain (Loss)
============================================
29.2% ………. Gross Percent Change
21.2% ………. Net Percent Change
164.1% ………… Annual Appreciation
Cost of Home Ownership
——————————————————————————
$379,900 …….. Asking Price
$13,297 ………… 3.5% Down FHA Financing
3.80% …………. Mortgage Interest Rate
30 ……………… Number of Years
$366,604 …….. Mortgage
$102,167 ………. Income Requirement
$1,708 ………… Monthly Mortgage Payment
$329 ………… Property Tax at 1.04%
………… Mello Roos & Special Taxes
$95 ………… Homeowners Insurance at 0.3%
$382 ………… Private Mortgage Insurance
$125 ………… Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$2,639 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
($261) ………. Tax Savings
($547) ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$17 ………….. Lost Income to Down Payment
$67 ………….. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$1,916 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$5,299 ………… Furnishing and Move In at 1% + $1,500
$5,299 ………… Closing Costs at 1% + $1,500
$3,666 ………… Interest Points
$13,297 ………… Down Payment
============================================
$27,561 ………. Total Cash Costs
$29,300 ………. Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$56,861 ………. Total Savings Needed
——————————————————————————————————————————————-
This property is available for sale via the MLS.
Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707
949.769.1599……
sales@ochousingnews.com…..
We're sorry, but it seems that we're having some problems loading MLS # P825690 from our database. Please check back soon.
 |
$319,781 862 SAINT LUCIA Way |
0.71 miles 2 bd / 2 ba 1,312 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$499,900 807 POWELL Dr |
1.02 miles 3 bd / 2.5 ba 1,449 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$320,000 17591 BUENA VISTA Ave |
1.19 miles 3 bd / 1 ba 1,225 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$379,000 4207 North SANTA CECILIA St |
1.66 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,232 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$389,000 4206 North SANTA ANITA St |
1.66 miles 3 bd / 1.75 ba 1,426 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$299,900 327 MONTEREY Cir |
1.93 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,314 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$280,000 116 SUNSET |
1.93 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,178 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$220,000 849 NEBRASKA Ave |
1.97 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,238 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$309,900 901 GONZALES St |
1.97 miles 4 bd / 2 ba 1,350 Sq. Ft. |
|
 |
$400,000 802 PRIMROSE Ave |
1.98 miles 3 bd / 2 ba 1,278 Sq. Ft |
Sign up for the OC Housing News monthly market newsletter.
See the enormous foreclosure pipeline for yourself below. Enter location and press search. Scroll through list by pressing "next."
We provide detailed information on any property.
The Option ARM recast (not reset) is still predicted to cause problems in some markets.
Investment Firm Predicts 2nd Wave of Foreclosures in San Diego
San Diego County is in for a second wave of foreclosures, and this time, it will be even bigger than before, according to Blue Sky Capital, a San Diego-based real estate investment firm.
Blue Sky Capital tracked area properties and found that loans funded with Option Arm, which is a type of adjustable rate mortgage, and Alt-A are about see higher interest rates.
This will lead to higher mortgage payments for homeowners and will cause those who can’t afford the new payments to potentially go into foreclosure.
“While these Option Arm and Alt-A loans exist throughout the county, areas like Carmel Valley are filled with them. During our tracking of distressed properties in the county we found many homes in areas like Carmel Valley were purchased with zero, or a small amount down, so there is very little equity in theses properties,” said Chris Williams, CEO of Blue Sky Capital.
With more than 36 percent of all mortgages in San Diego underwater, the investment firm said it expects things to get worse before they get better.
Blue Sky Capital also tracks housing supply and home prices and gave credit to negative equity for the rise in home prices since it is preventing people from listing their homes.
Williams explained that the increase is only temporary and not a real sign that things are improving.
“These situations are unsustainable and certainly short lived. Strategic defaults, foreclosures and property value declines have to happen for the market to reset and clear itself of the toxicity from the greatest mortgage mess of this century,” he said.